Australia have endured a tough few years since the last 50-over World Cup, but is everything falling into place for them at just the right time?
It’s no secret that since storming to victory in the World Cup four years ago, Australia’s fortunes in the format have waned somewhat. It wasn’t that their stocks crashed overnight – they, unsuprisingly, beat Ireland in their first (one-off) match since the tournament, and proceeded to follow that up by claiming impressive victories against first a rebranded and revitalised England (3-2, away) and then the ever-impressive India (4-1, home).
After this period, their form cooled off somewhat and in the lead up to the 2017 Champions’ Trophy, they won 17 of their next 30 (completed) ODIs – a decent enough record, of course, but a noticeable step down from the levels they had been performing at not long before. They were arguably unlucky to crash out of that tournament in the group stages after two washouts (including a match against Bangladesh in which they were set to absolutely romp home) and a rain-affected loss against England. Unfortunately for them, when they returned to the format that winter, their form didn’t just dip further – it absolutely plummeted.
Of course, even as an Englishman, I have no wish whatsoever to delve into the details of Australia’s ODI woes of recent times, but journalistic integrity demands I must. So, I’ll keep it quick: Since being eliminated from the Champions’ Trophy, Australia have played 26 One-Day Internationals. They have won 7 of them (27%) and lost 19 (73%). After crushing England in the Ashes that winter, they were similarly outclassed in the one-day series that followed before travelling over for an ODI-only tour and finding themselves on the receiving end of England’s first ever 5-0 series victory in the format in the midst of which they conceded the ever-so-slightly record score of 481/6. Things improved a little in their two subsequent series as they recorded lesser defeats of 2-1 against both South Africa and India, but the overall picture has been bleak.
It would be unfair to recount all this without mentioning the two factors which have hampered Australia over much of this period: injuries to (mostly) their bowlers have led to their being forced to field some attacks which have been exposed as not up to the task. All teams must contend with injuries on a regular basis, of course, but of late Australia have perhaps suffered more than their fair share of these problems.
The other factor is Cricket Australia’s controversial decision to suspend Steve Smith and David Warner from international (and domestic) cricket following the ‘Sandpapergate’ ball-tampering scandal which came to pass during the test tour of South Africa in 2018, which has left the side without it’s two most accomplished batsmen.
Their bans have knock-on effects too: Aaron Finch, probably Australia’s most important ODI batsman after Smith and Warner, has seen his personal form plummet (240 runs in his last 11 matches – an average of 21 with a strike rate of 69), with the cause being widely accepted as a loss of confidence in his own game follwing his failures in the test arena after a nearly entirely unsuccessful attempt to shoehorn him into the long-form opening spot left vacant by the absent Warner.
With all the above in mind, it is not at all suprising that Australia have slipped to 5th place (tied with Pakistan) in the ICC ODI Rankings, which is, while by no means abysmally low, disappointing for a team with their pedigree and recent success. More importantly, whilst very few people are expecting them to sink without a trace at the forthcoming world cup, there are equally few predictions for them to emerge as victors.
A month ago my view was very much in line with the majority of the cricketing world’s, in that I’d have given Australia an outside chance of taking home the trophy, but not much more. The world of international sport is an ever-changing one, however as are my thoughts on this matter, which are now notably more optimistic with regards to Australia’s hopes of success.
Firstly, both Smith and Warner will be available to play and I will be very surprised if they do not – Smith will certainly play and whilst I thought when he was initially banned that Warner’s international career might well be over, Australia’s Englandesque inability to find a replacement opener, plus Warner’s credentials undoubted abilities as a batsman mean that I now expect him to return to the fold. Whether he will be welcomed back with open arms remains a valid and interesting question, though one for an article other than this, but I have no doubt that his presence in the side is almost guaranteed and will provide a significant boost to Australia’s batting.
Secondly, there is a good chance that Australia will go in to the World Cup with an injury-free, first-choice bowling attack. The return of Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc is, put simply, a big deal – both have excellent records in the format and whilst a number of the bowlers who have filled in for them at various times have had their moments, on the whole they simply don’t compare.
Now, these first two reasons were as true – and as relevant – a month ago as they are now. So why, this time last week, was I not predicting Australian success on the back of the return of these key players. My reason is that even with a full-strength side including those named above, Australia have still struggled in recent times – most notably in their loss to England after the last Ashes series.
But something has changed since a few weeks ago: Australia have remembered how to win. Their performance in the series versus India which concluded earlier today have both surprised and impressed me. After going 2-0 down in the five-match series, Australia, to the surprise of most observers, bounced back to win the series 3-2. Not only is this a far better performance than anything they have shown recently and a perfect confidence booster with the start of the World Cup so near, this remarkable turnaround came about due to a number of individual efforts which have left me with the opinion that Australia’s key players may indeed have the support act they will need if they are to emerge triumphant.
Let me say now that I caveat everything in the following few paragraphs with the fact that impressive performances in three matches do not qualify as even a run of good form, let alone make a player a great. That said, to win this one tournament, Australia (or any team, for that matter) can get away without having genuinely great players if those they do have perform when they need to, something which I now find a more likely prospect than I did not long ago.
Pat Cummins has always been a top-class bowler in test matches, but until now his ODI returns have been far from terrible, but certainly nothing earth-shattering either. However, his 14 wickets in the series just gone came at the excellent average of 15.71 and economy rate of 4.64, suggesting that he may have learnt how to translate his considerable talent with the ball into the shorter forms of the game.
Adam Zampa, though by no means a containing bowler, seems to have regained the knack of picking up wickets in the middle overs, something which is so important in ensuring that the batting side can’t just tee off at the end of innings.
Ashton Turner, in only his second ODI, played a stunning innings of 84 not out from only 43 deliveries to turn a chase of 359 into something nearing a formality. Whether or not he can produce knocks of anywhere near this quality with some level of consistency remains to be seen, but the potential is most certainly there.
Glenn Maxwell, although his extended and rather inexplicable absence from the team has led to his reputation exceeding his performances to date (and indeed, he didn’t score many runs in this series, though those he did make came typically quickly), is back and offers, at his best, the X-Factor which can win even matches that appear to be a foregone conclusion.
Usman Khawaja’s performances in the series – which included his first two international centuries in the format – saw him emerge as the leading run scorer (383 runs – Virat Kohli was next, with 310) and solve the issue of Finch’s poor form, as he can partner David Warner at the top of the order when he returns.
Peter Handscomb too enjoyed a very good series with the bat, after mixed returns in his career to date, also scoring a maiden ODI century – whilst the return of Smith may yet mean he does not make the 1st XI at the start of the World Cup, the team’s bench will be all the stronger for it.
There are still more factors which could improve Australia’s chances – the selectors would do well, for example, to make use of the form Matthew Wade is currently exhibiting in domestic cricket and taken individually, the reasons I have listed, impressive as the are, are not of the kind which win you an international tournament. But, taken together, they just might.
Now, maybe I’m getting carried away by a handful of impressive performances, and the lows which Australia have hit over the past year or so are making these relative highs look better than they really are. They have a 5-match series against Pakistan before the start of the World Cup in which to find out. But over the last few weeks they’ve most definitely shown that all the components of a world-cup winning team are still their and, as poor as they may have been recently, they’ve picked the right moment to get their act together.
By Glen Chudley
@gc_cricket 